TO技术控：2014 年关于开发者和云的 15 个预测

大数据独立软件开发商将越来越多的在分析层,驱动核心技术标准和认证进行创新。
大数据是迫使独立软件开发商在创新分析层加大力度的原因。但是独立软件开发商争相建立应用以支持许多无标准的变种的大数据基础设施的核心技术。这包括操作系统,存储基础设施，与核心大数据基础设施例如hadoop和新形态的数据库-相当于现在的LAMP栈。栈的行业标准和正式的认证建立将会创造更少的变种，独立软件开发商需要采用用于服务和支持的机制来支持这种变种。这将使得独立软件开发商的产品更快的被市场采用。

基础设施即服务(IaaS)，平台即服务(PaaS)和软件即服务(SaaS)之间的界限日益模糊
因为越来越多的客户更加关注他们的应用和平台即服务/基础设施即服务怎样可以更快的开发和部署应用程序，平台即服务和基础设施即服务之间的界限将会越来越模糊。我们也会看到更多的创新在这种被创作用来弹性和可扩展性的充分利用底层的云平台的应用程序中。

– Ashesh Badani, vice president and general manager, Cloud and OpenShift, Red Hat

在2014年，平台即服务和OpenStack的互通性将会被持续的加强。OpenStack将会替代Paas么？实际上，这两者是互相补充的关系，PaaS产生工作负载，OpenStack提供空间用来储存他们。我们将会继续努力，使PaaS和OpenStack拥有更紧密的集成和更好的操作性。

– Chuck Dubuque, director, Product Marketing, Virtualization and OpenStack, Red Hat

IaaS,PaaS和SaaS三者之间的边界正将要被打破，并且三者将会拥有更好的将会拥有更好的集成；Solum OpenStack这个项目是这一点的一个完美体现。

– Gordon Haff, cloud evangelist, Red Hat

数据虚拟化的增长势头

“打个比方说，数据就就是信息时代的黄金，只有当一个组织能够有效的捕获并利用它。不幸的是，数据在许多组织中被分配到多个运行和操作系统中，使得数据通过传统的复制或合并方法很难被有效和精确的确定它的价值。例如数据虚拟化，精益集成技术正在成为一个对这些挑战的应答，并且将有可能通过其自身的连接、抽象和统一异构数据源的能力在未来一年获得人气。”

- Syed Rasheed, senior principal product marketing manager, Middleware, Red Hat

按需开发运营

围绕着为了应用开发者该怎样更好的利用云的一些问题，在2014年里将持续不断的从各处如雨后春笋般涌现。明年，将有更多有关开发运营的对话关注于PaaS和云端货柜技术（container technology）。容器在IT团队之间将变得越来越流行，开发者将开始寻求开发运营带来的优势，不仅仅在艰难的开发过程中，也在其带来的工具方面。

-Red Hat公司OpenShift Strategy主管Krishnan Subramanian

企业中的PaaS: 对更复杂，全方位支持，企业应用服务的持续增长的需求。进入xPaaS时代

PaaS在企业中获得持续的牵引力，在通过PaaS产品（名为xPaaS）收获更复杂，全方位支持，企业应用服务方面会有强劲的需求驱动。因为在云平台和相应的基础设施中，这些方面有持续的进步，反之由于高成本和关注周边的可管理性、可移植性和锁定，专有虚拟化的作用将削弱。

-Red Hat公司Cloud and OpenShift副总裁兼总经理 Ashesh Badani

在联邦机构中从“专用”app到移动app

联邦机构为桌面环境有代表性的开发“专用”应用，但是看看未来，开发者将关注于将其中的许多应用移植到移动设备上，这其中包括公众的应用以及内部的应用。2014年公共部门开发人员使用云基础设施平台和平台即服务(PaaS)来创建移动应用，这样的事情将有一个爆发。对机构来说再也没有什么事情，比适应诸如电子办公以及移动办公（BYOD）更重要的了，而且其唯一的办法就是将前端应用程序转移到移动平台。

- Red Hat公司美国公共部门首席技术战略家Gunnar Hellekson

驱动创新从分解阶段到集成阶段

在宏观层面，IT工业倾向于在多年的分解和集成阶段中循环。分解阶段特点是发明和创新的爆发，新工具和新平台不断的出现解决各种有趣的问题。看看近些年来在移动、社交、云计算和大数据领域所发生的创新。这些都很好，但是现在的挑战是让这些东西具有商业价值。这是集成阶段的特点。创新与现有资产集成起来提高生产力和盈利能力。我相信我们开始从一个单点解决方案的创新阶段，开始转向将这些创新成果集成到商务中的创新阶段。

- Red Hat公司中间件产品营销主任Pierre Fricke

在混合的IT环境中混合软件定义的存储越来越成为维护应用程序和数据的迁移的重要手段

随着越来越多的混合IT再加上大叔数据和软件架构趋势的日益交杂造成了存储设备的重大转变 – 从昂贵和不灵活的数据中心的存储模式转向软件定义的存储模式。因此，混合软件定义的存储将越来越成为在混合IT环境的维护应用程序和数据迁移重要手段。 使用基于POSIX的存储软件的公共API是在公共、私有和混合部署的环境之间轻松迁移数据的唯一方法。这是绝对必要的一种保持的灵活性在不同供应商之间的应用程序、内部部署基础设施、场外供应商之间的迁移数据方式。

- 朗高兰加查里，副总裁和总经理，数据存储部门，红帽linux

效率+安全=增加采用私有云

企业需要云带来的效率，但是拥有关键任务数据的他们，却并不准备信任公共云。仓储化并不是一个选择，因为它不具有云的效率，因此会导致竞争上的劣势。这样说来，在2014年里组织将越来越多的拥抱私有云环境，以便在获得他们想要的效率的同时，获得他们需要的安全性。

- Red Hat公司OpenShift Strategy主管Krishnan Subramanian

公共云: 被越来越多的采用；开源仍占主导地位
我们将会看到越来越多的企业愿意为他们的工作负载使用公共云，尽管还有很多难以避免的安全性及遵从各项规定的问题，因为数据要存在并且监管在公共云上。我们也将看到在云的构建上开源仍占主导地位，尤其是公共云。

- Gordon Haff, cloud evangelist, Red Hat

我们相信或大或小的组织，将会把更多的工作负载移到公共云上并且利用公共PaaS服务。尽管公共云被越来越多的采用，企业云部署–在2014年及以后–在本质上仍然难以融合。

- Ashesh Badani, vice president and general manager, Cloud and OpenShift, Red Hat

云的可视化和控制访问的服务与工具在增多

在2014年里，云的可视化将成为安全性的关键。用户希望得到更多的关于云如何运作的可视化信息——无论是基础设施或者是PaaS。现在云仍处于一种“黑匣子”的状态，用户不知道也不理解发生了什么。2014年将把重点放在使云可视化以及设置访问控制这样的服务或工具上。

- Red Hat公司OpenShift strategy主管Krishnan Subramanian

下面是英语原文：

Big data ISVs will increasingly innovate at the analytics layer, driving core technology standardization and certifications
Big data is forcing ISVs to add value through innovation at the analytics layer. But ISVs are scrambling to build applications that support many nonstandard variants of core big data infrastructure technology. This includes the operating system, storage infrastructure, and core big data infrastructure such as Hadoop and new styles of databases – the modern equivalent of the LAMP stack. The establishment of industry-wide standards and formal certifications across the stack will create fewer variants ISVs need to support with mechanisms for service and support. This will enable faster market adoption for ISVs products.
- Ranga Rangachari, vice president and general manager, Storage, Red Hat

The lines between Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) get blurrier.
The line between PaaS and IaaS will continue to blur as customers will increasingly focus on their applications and how PaaS/IaaS can help accelerate application development and deployment. We’ll also see increasing innovation in the types of applications that are being created to take advantage of the underlying cloud platform elasticity and scalability.
- Ashesh Badani, vice president and general manager, Cloud and OpenShift, Red Hat

In 2014, interoperability between PaaS and OpenStack will continue to be reinforced. Will OpenStack replace PaaS? In reality, the two are complementary – PaaS generates workloads, while OpenStack offers a place to store them. We’re going to continue to work toward tighter integration and better operability between PaaS and OpenStack.
- Chuck Dubuque, director, Product Marketing, Virtualization and OpenStack, Red Hat

Boundaries between IaaS, PaaS and SaaS are going to break down and there will be better integration between the three; the Solum OpenStack project is a perfect example of this.
- Gordon Haff, cloud evangelist, Red Hat

Data virtualization gains momentum.
“Figuratively speaking, data can be worth its weight in gold in today’s information age, but only if an organization is able to effectively capture and use it. Unfortunately, data in many organizations is distributed across multiple operational and analytical systems, making it difficult to efficiently and accurately harness its value with traditional consolidation or replication methods. Lean integration techniques such as data virtualization are emerging as an answer to these challenges and are likely to gain popularity in the coming year based on their ability to connect, abstract and unify heterogeneous data sources.”
- Syed Rasheed, senior principal product marketing manager, Middleware, Red Hat

DevOps in-demand.
Questions around how to better leverage cloud for application developers are popping up everywhere and will continue to in 2014. Next year, there will be more conversations around DevOps with a focus on PaaS and container technology. Containers will become increasingly popular amongst IT teams and developers are going to demand the advantages offered by DevOps both in terms of hardship processes and tools.
- Krishnan Subramanian, director, OpenShift strategy, Red Hat

PaaS in the enterprise: growing demand for more complex, fully-supported, enterprise application services. Enter xPaaS.
PaaS will continue to gain traction in the enterprise and drive demand for more complex, fully supported, enterprise application services within PaaS offerings (known as xPaaS). As these efficiencies in cloud platforms and corresponding infrastructure continue to progress, the role of proprietary virtualization will be diminished due to high cost and concerns surrounding manageability, portability and lock-in.
- Ashesh Badani, vice president and general manager, Cloud and OpenShift, Red Hat

From ‘purpose-built’ apps to mobile apps in federal agencies.
Federal agencies have typically developed ‘purpose built’ applications for desktops but looking forward, developers will be focused on moving many of those applications to mobile devices for both citizen facing and internal facing applications. 2014 will see an explosion of public sector developers using a cloud infrastructure and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) to create mobile applications. It has never been more important for agencies to accommodate for factors such as teleworking and Bring your own Device (BYOD), and the only way to do that is to move the front-end applications to mobile platforms.
- Gunnar Hellekson, chief technology strategist, U.S. Public Sector, Red Hat

Moving innovations from the decomposition phase to the integration phase.
At a macro level, the IT industry tends to cycle through multi-year phases of decomposition and integration. The decomposition phase is marked by an explosion of invention and creative innovation, with new tools and platforms that solve interesting problems. Look at the innovations that have happened in the mobile, social, cloud and big data arenas recently. It’s wonderful, but now the challenge is to make these things valuable to the business. This is the mark of the integration phase. Innovations are integrated with existing assets to increase productivity and profitability. I believe we’re starting to move from a phase of innovating point solutions to innovating the way they are integrated into the business.
- Pierre Fricke, director, Product Marketing, Middleware, Red Hat

Hybrid software-defined storage will increasingly become an important means to maintain application and data portability across hybrid IT environments.
The increasing hybridization of IT coupled with big data and software-defined infrastructure trends has caused a major shift in storage infrastructure – from expensive and inflexible hardware-centric storage to software-defined storage. As a result, hybrid software-defined storage will increasingly become an important means to maintain application and data portability across hybrid IT environments. Elastic, POSIX-based storage software that incorporates common APIs across your hybrid environment is the only way to move data easily between public, private and hybrid on-premise environments. This is absolutely essential for maximum flexibility and portability of applications and data among different providers and between on-premise infrastructure and off-premise providers.
- Ranga Rangachari, vice president and general manager, Storage, Red Hat

Efficiencies + security = increased private cloud adoption.
Enterprises want the efficiencies that are offered by cloud but they are not ready to trust public clouds with their mission critical data. Being silo-ed isn’t an option because lacking the efficiency of the cloud would lead to a competitive disadvantage. Therefore, in 2014 organizations will increasingly embrace a private cloud environment to have the security they need with the efficiency they want.
- Krishnan Subramanian, director, OpenShift strategy, Red Hat

Public clouds: increased adoption; open source remains dominant.
We will continue to see an increase in the number of enterprises willing to use public clouds for some of their workloads, although there will still be lingering concerns around security and compliance, where the data should live, and regulations. We’ll also see the continued dominance of open source in the building of clouds, especially public clouds.
- Gordon Haff, cloud evangelist, Red Hat

We believe that organizations, large and small, will continue to move more workloads to the public cloud and leverage public PaaS services. Despite increased public cloud adoption, the enterprise cloud deployment – in 2014 and beyond – remains inherently hybrid.
- Ashesh Badani, vice president and general manager, Cloud and OpenShift, Red Hat

Services and tools for cloud visibility and controlled access on the rise.
In 2014, visibility into cloud is going to be the key to security. Users are going to want more visibility into how cloud works – whether it is infrastructure or PaaS. Right now the cloud is still in a “black box” sort of state where users don’t know or understand what’s happening. 2014 will focus on services or tools that enable visibility as well as setting up controlled access.
- Krishnan Subramanian, director, OpenShift strategy, Red Hat